美赛论文参考模版

Abstract:

Key words:

Team # 02 Page 2 of 18

Contents

1. Introduction...................................................................................................................................................3 2. The Description of Risk…......................................................................................................................3 2.1 Meaning of risk......................................................................................................................................3 2.2 Meaning of finance risks...................................................................................................................3 2.3 Causes of finance risks.......................................................................................................................3 3. Problem Analysis…....................................................................................................................................4 3.1 Problem One............................................................................................................................................4 3.2 Problem Two...........................................................................................................................................4 4. Symbols and assumptions.................................................................................................................... 4 4.1Symbols.......................................................................................................................................................4 4.2Assumptions .............................................................................................................................................6 5.Models…………….............................................................................................................................................6 5.1 Model A: Factor analysis ............................................................................................................... 6 5.2 Model B: Time series model...........................................................................................................9 6. Solution and Conclusions of the problem.................................................................................11 6.1 Problem One.........................................................................................................................................11

6.1.1 The adjustment of Water Utilization Structure........................................................11 6.1.2 The allocation scheme of China water use in various provinces...................14 6.2 Problem Two.......................................................................................................................................17 7. Strengths and Weaknesses................................................................................................................20 7.1 Strengths................................................................................................................................................20 7.2 Weaknesses..........................................................................................................................................20 8. References...................................................................................................................................................21 9. Appendix......................................................................................................................................................21 9.1Appendix A............................................................................................................................................21 9.2Appendix B............................................................................................................................................22 9.3 Appendix C...........................................................................................................................................23

Team # 02 Page 3 of 18

I. Introduction

Not only can disasters directly cause immense human suffering and loss, finance risk may also lead to long-term indirect consequences. In order to prevent a repeat market crash, the following background is worth mentioning.

1.1 In the Past

Developed countries as a dominant, and gradually realized economic globalization. The market crash of 2008 that plunged the world into the economic recession, The development of financial markets made the world closely, the U.S. subprime mortgage crisis has brought disaster to the global economy, Almost instantaneously, bank failures and unemployment make the world in chaos.

1.2 At the Present

Multinational enterprises promoted the development of economic globalization, so that contact between the state and the country more closely and complexity. Continuously improve the position of developing countries, Global economic growth power transfer after the economic crisis.

1.3 In the Future

Since 2000, the average annual growth rate was developed countries 2. 52%, while developing countries for 6. 36%, far ahead of the world's average Level. International financial landscape changed, Control the financial risk and strengthen financial supervisor Tube to be a main policy.

Global production networks presents three new trends: one is the heavy industry group to trigger a global cross-border industrial transfer speed up; Second, regional supply chain status rise; Third, as the core market shift, the market-oriented supply chain status tend to rise.

Financial risk has the objectivity of the nature of risk, uncertainty, predictability, etc. In the process of market economy growing, the objective existence of financial risk is inevitable. With the intensity of competition in the market strengthening continuously, understanding financial risk and to seek reasonable measures to resolve the financial risk for the sustainable development of enterprises are very important.

II. The Description of Risk

2.1 Meaning of Risk

At present, there is no definition of risk in academia, because scholars who study risk from different angles, has different interpretations on the concept. We can conclude some representative viewpoint as follows.

Risk is the likelihood, probability, or degree of probability of loss or injury.[1]

Risk is the foundation of insurance but a brief survey of insurance text books reveals differences of opinion among authors concerning the definition of “risk”.

Team # 02 Page 4 of 18

Risk is an advantage or disadvantage to which an individual is exposed. It occurs when the fallouts of a taken decision or undertaken action are more or less likely.

2.2 Meaning of Finance Risks

Financial risk is an umbrella term for multiple types of risk associated with financing, including financial transactions that include company loans in risk of default.[2][3][4]

Risk is a term often used to imply downside risk, meaning the uncertainty of a return and the potential for financial loss.[5][6]In addition to financial risks, there are five broad categories of investment risks known as five risks.[7]A science has evolved around managing market and financial risk under the general title of modern portfolio theory initiated by Dr. Harry Markowitz in 1952 with his article, \"Portfolio Selection\".[8]In modern portfolio theory, the variance (or standard deviation) of a portfolio is used as the definition of risk.

In narrow level, the financial risk associates with debt management. It’s the uncertain financial results caused by enterprises repaying debts that are due using monetary fund.

In broad level, the financial risk is that in the process of financial activities, due to various factors that are difficult to predict or control, the financial situation has uncertainty, so that enterprises have suffered losses. Broad financial risk mainly performs as financing risk, investment risk, capital recovery risk, the income distribution risk, cash flow risk, associated financial risk, foreign exchange risk and capital operational risk and other forms.

[9]

2.3 Causes of Finance Risks

Financial risk passes through the entire process of financial management activities. Analyzing the reasons that cause financial risk can help us to implement targeted measures to avoid financial risk.

2. 3.1 The Complexity and Polygon of Enterprise External Financial Management[10]

The external financial management of enterprise business environment mainly includes economic factor, legal factor, socio-cultural factor, market factor four factors.[11]

These external factors exist out of enterprise, and they are out control of enterprise, but they have significant impact on financial risk of enterprise. Complexity and changing of macroeconomic environment will inevitable lead financial risk to enterprise.

The complexity and changing of external macro environment may bring some opportunities to enterprises, may also bring some challenges to enterprises, all of these are out control of enterprises. The external macro environment change, but financial management system is lack of adaptive ability and strain ability, that makes the enterprise reaction lag behind the external macro environment change and have no timely and effective avoidance measures so that to lead to the occurrence of financial

Team # 02 Page 5 of 18

risk.

2. 3.2 The Enterprise's Own Internal Reasons

(1)The irrationality of accounting elements structure in enterprise business

Accounting elements are assets, liabilities, equity, revenues, expenses, profits. In certain accounting period, the irrationality of the structure of the six elements themselves and the structure between each other will lead to changes of enterprise earnings uncertainty, thus prompting the occurrence of financial risk.

(2)The conditionality of subjective management decision-making system in enterprise System

The subjective management decision-making system in enterprise system mainly includes enterprise management personnel, internal financial activity two aspects. The constraints of these two aspects causing financial risk mainly perform as the following aspects:

First, the enterprise management personnel management ability is insufficient. The awareness of general financial risk management personnel is shallow. Financial risk is objective, comprehensive, so as long as financial activity exists, there will be potential financial risk. But many people take it for granted that as long as we take good advantages of funds, we can avoid financial risk. This shallow sense is an important reason causing financial risk. At the same time, financial management decision-making errors will directly lead to the generation of financial risk.

The second, the uncertainties of enterprise internal financial activities Internal uncertainties of financial activities mainly focus on the uncertainties existing in all aspects of financial activities, such as procurement, production, marketing, technology, quality, human resources, information and financial. These uncertainties result in financial risk of fund-raising, investment, financial operations and income distribution four financial activities aspects.

In financing, there are many unreasonable phenomenon of enterprise capital structure. Serious shortage of solvency or concealment of risk because of debt has significant potential risk to enterprises.

In investment, some enterprise investment decision-making has arbitrary characteristic. As the investment decision-makers lack of understanding of investment risk, making mistakes and blind investment will lead to huge investment losses of some enterprises.

In operation of the funds, poor stock liquidity will take up a lot of money of enterprise and to keep these stocks will also pay a lot of storage costs, which will result in enterprise increased costs.

In income distribution, the capital structure will be considered less. Dividend distribution policy affects not only business-related interests of all aspects, but also the enterprise's financing and capital structure, which is related to long-term development of enterprise. [12]

III. Problem Analysis

3.1 Problem One: The redefinition of risk

Team # 02 Page 6 of 18

In the paper, Based on the choice of risk evaluation index , considering the possibility of universality and statistics China and the United States to obtain the current financial risks, select the macroeconomic , monetary and banking , bubble risks and external economic environment of financial risk assessment system design .

3.1.1 the indicators that reflect the overall situation of Macroeconomic

Poor macroeconomic overall growth performance and recession, often leads to economic crisis. For these reasons , Our model selects GDP growth , inflation rate, the fixed asset investment growth as the evaluation index.

Export of appetite, excessive growth of imports would lead to a deterioration in the current account , and has a close relationship with the financial crisis. Selecting total import and export to GDP , the rate of change in the import and export trade as measure index of trade import and export situation.

Financial indicators reflect the country's capacity to mobilize social economic resources and the national ability of guiding social and economic development. Our model selects the fiscal revenue and fiscal deficits.

3.1.2 Selections of currency bank evaluation index

In many countries, the currency crisis and banking crisis caused by excessive monetary expansion and rapid credit growth. Therefore, we choose the ratio of M2 to GDP , M2 multiplier (M2 and M1 ratio ) , the ratio of real interest rates and nominal lending rate and deposit rate ( for one year ) as part of this evaluation .

Because the loss of external competitiveness in the market will lead to a recession , business failure , the decease of loan quality, external vulnerability and overvalued currency will increase the vulnerability of the banking sector. The banking crisis will trigger a currency crisis. Therefore, this choice of foreign direct investment and the ratio of M2 to foreign exchange reserves as metrics.

3.1.3 Bubble risk

Typical characteristics of bubble risk is currency in circulation and circulation of

commodities ties gradually from the capital in the pursuit of profit nature have flocked to the stock market , real estate and other speculative markets, the real prices of financial assets are grossly overvalued . the stock market bubble and a major real estate bubble related to the bubble economy. Evaluation of real estate prices are too high and the effect is not very complicated ideal, and therefore did not set targets in this regard.

The size of stock market bubble depends on the extent of the stock price , the stock market capitalization and trading volume, the measurement is stock price-earnings ratio, stock turnover and stock market value.

3.1.4 The change of the world economy growing

Team # 02 Page 7 of 18

With the deepening of the process of financial globalization, the impact of changes in the world economic situation of China's financial system is increasingly strengthened . So our model select international crude oil prices and changes in the rate of economic growth as an international power metrics.

In Table 1, we summarize the risk evaluation index;

Table 1: risk evaluation index Index type detection indicators GDP growth (A1) Inflation rate (A2) Fixed asset investment growth rate (A3) Total imports and exports/GDP (A4) Macroeconomic Import rate of change (A5) Export rate of change (A6) Revenue / GDP (A7) Budget deficit / GDP (A8) M2/GDP (A9) M2 multiplier (A10) Evaluation of Money and The effective interest rate / nominal lending rate (A11) Banking Nominal lending rate / deposit rates (A12) Foreign Direct Investment / GDP (A13) M2 / reserves (A14) Stock price-earnings ratio (A15) In stock turnover (A16) Bubble risks Stock market capitalization / GDP (A17) the rate of change in international prices Impact of the external of crude oil (A18) economic environment U.S. economic growth (A19) 3.2 Problem Two 3.2.1 human factors

With the deepening of the process of financial globalization, the impact of changes in the world economic situation of China's financial system is increasingly strengthened . So our model select international crude oil prices and changes in the rate of economic growth as an international power metrics.

IV. Symbols and Assumptions

Team # 02 Page 8 of 18

4.1 Symbols

1. xi random variables;

lij unknown constants

Fj unobserved random variables(where i1,......,p and j1,......,k)

i independently distributed error terms

4.2 Assumptions

  

V. Models

5.1 Model A

5.1.1 Factorial analysis

Factor analysis is a statistical method used to describe variability among observed, correlated variables in terms of a potentially lower number of unobserved variables called factors. For example, it is possible that variations in four observed variables mainly reflect the variations in two unobserved variables. Factor analysis searches for such joint variations in response to unobserved latent variables. The observed variables are modelled as linear combinations of the potential factors, plus \"error\" terms. The information gained about the interdependencies between observed variables can be used later to reduce the set of variables in a dataset. Computationally this technique is equivalent to low rank approximation of the matrix of observed variables.

Suppose we have a set of pobservable random variablesx1,.....,xp, they may be associated, may independently with the standardized means a new variable 1,.....,p.

We can create the factor analysis model is as follows :

Team # 02 Page 9 of 18

Suppose for some unknown constants lij and kunobserved random variables Fj, where i1,......,p and j1,......,k, where kp, we have

xiili1F1......likFki

Here, the i are independently distributed error terms with zero mean and finite variance, which may not be the same for all i. Let Var(i)i , so that we have

Cov()Diag(1,......,P)andE()0.

In matrix terms, we have

xLF.

If we have nobservations, then we will have the dimensions xpn, Lpk, and

Fkn. Each column of x and F denote values for one particular observation, and

matrix L does not vary across observations.

Also we will impose the following assumptions on F. 1. Fand  are independent. 2. E(F)0.

3. Cov(F)I (to make sure that the factors are uncorrelated)

Any solution of the above set of equations following the constraints for F is defined as the factors, and L as the loading matrix.

Suppose Cov(x). Then note that from the conditions just imposed on F, we have

Cov(x)Cov(LF)

or

LCov(F)LTCov()

or

LLT

Note that for any orthogonal matrix Q if we set LLQ and FQTF, the criteria for being factors and factor loadings still hold. Hence a set of factors and factor loadings is identical only up to orthogonal transformation.

Team # 02 Page 10 of 18

5.2 Model B

5.2.1 ARIMA Time series model

A time series is a sequence of data points, measured typically at successive points in time spaced at uniform time intervals.

Models for time series data can have many forms and represent different stochastic processes.

A common notation specifying a time series X that is indexed by the natural numbers is written

Y{Yt:tT},

The basic model:

ytxttt1,.....,T

Where

T: the index set.

VI. Solution and Conclusions of the problem

6.1 Conclusions of the Problem one 6.1.1 Factorial analysis

The indicators have been selected in accordance with the respective country 's official data as a sample , the sample data for factor analysis using SPSS software . First, using KMO and test of sphericity, by KMO values, we can initially determine the suitability of the data set using factor analysis method described model with factor structure. Then extract the common factor principal components method. Rotation operation is needed for given name and explanation to factor analysis. According to common factors extracted from the regression can be a single factor score , and then to the right of each variance was re- calculate their common factor linear combination to obtain composite score factors.

We query the China statistical yearbook compiled all the data we need (see appendix A: total synthetic data).

We use factor analysis of multivariate statistical analysis techniques, selected major dominant factors from numerous factors and calculate the factor score, to grasp the trend of financial risk in recent years in our country. The table 2 is the total variance explained:

Table 2: Total Variance Explained

Team # 02 Page 11 of 18

Using the software of SPSS, according to the principle of characteristic roots is greater than 1, elected to the common factor. From table 2, its cumulative variance contribution rate reached 91.199%, which reflects the original information of 91.199% (see chart 1), so we choose the five common factor evaluation as the state of the financial risk variables of our country.

Use factor loading value indicates male factor and the correlation degree between the original variable the higher of the index. Factor loading value, the more amount of information shows that the factors containing the 25 index. Table 3 shows the 25 times of the orthogonal rotational factor loading matrix.

Table 3: Rotated Component Matrix (a)

Team # 02 Page 12 of 18

Orthogonal rotation to extract the five common factor reflects the main characteristic of financial risk in China from five aspects (Since the first five male variance contribution rate has reached 90.583%, so we dropped the sixth common factors):

Common factor 1 in stock clinch a deal amount/GDP (A16), circulation of stock market value /GDP (A17), inflation rate (A2), real interest rates/nominal interest rate (A11), nominal interest rate/deposit rates (A12) on the five indexes such as the

amount of load is greater than 0.7, the maximum variance contribution rate 44.281%, this in part reflects the risk of asset price bubble.

Common factor 2 in the import and export/GDP (A4), total GDP growth

(A1)/GDP, fiscal deficit (A8), import rate (A5), M2 / reserves (A14) is the amount of load is greater than 0.7, the variance contribution rate is 17.8%, and the factor is mainly from the macroeconomic level reflects the risk situation.

Common factor 3 in the M2 multiplier (A10), M2 / GDP (A9), fiscal revenue/GDP (A7), foreign direct investment/GDP (A13), p/e ratio (Shanghai) (A15) is the amount of load is greater than 0.6, the variance contribution rate is 14.241%, the factor mainly reflects the dominated by Banks in the financial sector risk profile.

Common factor in 4 (A3) the growth rate of investment in fixed assets, the

international crude oil rate of change (A18) is the amount of load is greater than 0.6, the variance contribution rate is 9.102%;

Common factor 5 in the export rate (A6), U.S. economic growth (A19) is the amount of load is greater than 0.6, the variance contribution rate is 5.926%, the risk

Team # 02 Page 13 of 18

factor from the aspect of foreign trade reflects the situation.

After factor analysis, the regression method to calculate the factor score, by each factor variance contribution rates accounted for the proportion of total variance contribution rate as the weight weighted summary, it is concluded that the annual F scores of financial risk.

Table 4: he annual F scores of financial risk 年份 F1 F2 1.17499 2000 -0.39877 2001 -0.72085 2002 -1.31855 2003 -0.69004 2004 -0.13359 2005 -1.157 2006 -0.83165 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 1.272 0.87276 0.9 1.75908 0.79412 F F3 0.65538 F4 -0.68609 -0.66966 -0.207 -0.55166 -0.49344 0.49317 1.68674 2.38513 -0.67798 -0.8163 -0.60817 -0.16075 0.38807 F5 1.51032 0.75942 0.626 -0.44918 -1.45222 -0.88258 -0.27796 0.21367 -1.49278 -0.66982 1.35325 -0.22718 0.98852 F6 -0.39807 -1.21841 0.78217 0.90299 0.28299 0.40737 -0.28772 0.25072 -2.09602 1.85339 0.48346 -0.40233 -0.560 F 0.125163 -0.41904 -0.53002 -0.1591 0.041679 -0.57498 -0.26255 1.076045 0.1398 0.095743 0.962731 0.13107 -0.62223 F -0.421 -0.11098 0.370926 0.200774 -0.61666 0.312435 1.338595 -0.94055 -0.03976 0.866988 -0.83166 -0.7533 1.03299 -1.250 0.39276 -0.31748 0.22353 0.24451 -0.488 -0.14152 1.0469 1.26749 0.391 0.04519 1.30596 -0.16115 0.31438 -0.284 0.08862 -2.153 -0.49381 -1.16563 1.30741 0.19744 2012 -0.35318 -2.33188 -0.74131 We have： Fj(AiFij)/Ai

Where

Fj: Composite scores of jth year;

Ai: The variance contribution of factor i; Fij: The score of factor i in jth year;

F: Factor comprehensive scoring margin rose.

6.1.2 Set up Dynamic model

Fis Related to time, by software of EVIEWS, We can set up ARIMA time series model

6.2 solutions of the Problem one

At the same time we let F scores and comprehensive scores of the change of F data plotting on the line chart.

Team # 02 Page 14 of 18

F and ΔF1.510.5F and ΔfF02000200120022003200420052006200720082009201020112012FΔF-0.5-1-1.5YEARFigure 1: FandF

By analyzing the line chart and compared with China's financial situation, get the following information:

The financial risks fluctuate within a certain range, a smaller fluctuation range when we can think of steady economic growth. When the fluctuation range exceeds a certain threshold value, the national economy has entered a dangerous state.

In 2005 the fluctuation rang was significantly increased, in 2007 became the most serious, and ultimately led to the financial crisis. China's economy running smoothly in 2001-2006 financial security is good. In 2007 Comprehensive trend violent shock factor scores, indicating that in 2007 China's financial security situation has deteriorated. Since 2008, a comprehensive trend is still greater shock factor scores, indicating that the financial situation is still not optimistic

The reasons are as follows: First, the financial crisis caused by the slowdown of the U.S. economy and global economic growth, decline in external demand for China’ s exports significantly affect China's export growth for six consecutive years by the above 20% for the first time dropped to 17.2%, GDP growth rate for the first time less than 10%. Second, the financial crisis has increased the risk of exchange rate and capital market risk, in 2008 the growth rate of China's foreign exchange reserves slowed dramatically, in response to the negative impact of the financial crisis, the United States adopted loose monetary policy and exchange rate policy, the weak dollar, the U.S. dollar sharply devaluation to China has brought great exchange rate risk. Third, the financial crisis increased our market risk capital. In 2008 foreign direct investment share of GDP increased slightly, the economic slowdown in the developed countries, China's sustained economic growth, the weak dollar

Team # 02 Page 15 of 18 situation, accelerate the flow of international capital seeking a safe haven , which exacerbates the risk of China's capital market. This shows that China's financial risks are still running high, there is still expected to continue to rise in the next few years the trend risks further.

Financial risk is always present in the financial management objectively and it’s unrealistic to eliminate financial risk thoroughly. Therefore, enterprises should strengthen preventive measures. Through the analysis of characteristics and causes of financial risk, this paper presents the following measures to avoid financial risk:

http://link.springer.com/content/pdf/10.1007%2F978-3-2-29084-8_40.pdf

Effective Measures to Avoid Financial Risk

6.1 Improve Strain Capacity of the External Financial Management Environment Although external management environment is not under the control of enterprise, enterprise itself cannot sit still waiting for death. Enterprise should make a set of effective financial management system through careful study and analysis to the external financial environment changing trend and law. The financial management

Team # 02 Page 16 of 18

system must have a reasonable financial management strategy, efficient financial management structure, high-quality financial management personnel and sound

financial management system. When the external financial management environment changes, enterprise can effectively make a timely, targeted response through this set of financial management system, thereby improve the strain capacity of financial management system, and ultimately reduce the potential financial risk by external uncertainty to the enterprise.

Establish Long-Term Financial Indicators Analysis and Early Warning System[4]

Building financial indicators system is the key to build long-term financial early warning system and it’s necessary to long-term continuous and steady development of enterprise. Profitability, solvency, economic efficiency, growth potential and other financial indicators are particularly representative.

Profit is the objective of enterprise development. In assets profitability, total assets returns ratio= (total profit before interest and tax) ÷ (assets average total amounts), indicates the level of profit per dollar and reflects profitability of use of assets by enterprise. Costs profit margin = operating profit ÷ total costs, reflects the higher profit by cost of one dollar, the stronger the profitability of enterprise.

In solvency, current ratio = current assets ÷ current liabilities. The indicator reflects the liquidity of assets, the higher the ratio, the stronger the solvent, and usually the best value is around 2. Assets liability ratio = total liabilities ÷ total assets. Assets liability ratio is normally 40% to 60%.When returns ratio on investment is greater than the loan interest rate, the more the borrowing, the more the profit, while the greater the financial risk. [5]

In economic efficiency, the accounts receivable turnover rate and production and sales balance rate reflect asset management indicators.

In development potential, the sales growth rate and capital increment rate two indicators are selected.

In long run, having good profitability to avoid financial risk, enterprise can have stronger external financing ability and solvency. Related indicators are as : total assets net income ratio = net cash flow provided by operating activities + net cash received by share dividends or profit + cash interest expense + income taxes paid) ÷ average total assets; sales net income ratio = net cash flow generated from operating activities ÷ net income from sales; shareholders' equity return rate = net profit ÷ average shareholders' equity).

These indicators can make enterprises have certain financial risk early warning function automatically, make reasonable prediction to the potential financial risk, and timely reflect to the financial risk forecasted and make appropriate strategies and control measures to reduce enterprise losses to the minimum.

4.3 Bring Up High-Quality Financial Management Person, Improve the Scientific Level of Financial Decision-Making

Faced with complex market environment, financial management staff should have a strong sense of financial risk, a clear mind and a professional business knowledge reserves. To be able to apply the theoretical approach to analyse financial risks

Team # 02 Page 17 of 18

scientifically, and be able to make reasonable assumptions and estimates according to the analysis and the actual situation. On this basis, accurately determining the

VII. Strengths and Weaknesses

7.1Strengths 7.2Weaknesses

Ⅷ. References

[1] Gerald F. Gebhart and Robert F. Schmidt Encyclopedia of Pain (2013) 10.1007/978-3-2-28753-4_201940

[2] Lin, Tom C. W., A Behavioral Framework for Securities Risk. 34 Seattle University Law Review 325 2011) . Available at SSRN: http://ssrn.com/abstract=2040946

[3] \"Financial Risk: Definition\". Investopedia. Retrieved October 2011. [4]\"In Wall Street Words\". Credo Reference. 2003. Retrieved October 2011. [5]McNeil, Alexander J.; Frey, Rüdiger; Embrechts, Paul (2005). Quantitative risk management: concepts, techniques and tools. Princeton University Press. pp. 2–3. ISBN 978-0-691-12255-7.

[6]Horcher, Karen A. (2005). Essentials of financial risk management. John Wiley and Sons. pp. 1–3. ISBN 978-0-471-70616-8.

[7]Chong, James; Jennings, William; Phillips, Michael (May 2012). \"Five Types of Risk and a Fistful of Dollars: Practical Risk Analysis for Investors\". Journal of Financial Service Professionals: 68. Retrieved 28 June 2013.

[8]Markowitz, H.M. (March 1952). \"Portfolio Selection\". The Journal of Finance 7 (1): 77–91. doi:10.2307/2975974

[9] Li, Q.: Financial Management. Economic Press, Beijing (2004)

[10] Nan-nan Zhang The Central Institute for Correctional Police, Baoding China [11] Zhang, D.: Risk Base Financial Management. China Financial and Economic Press, Beijing (2005)

[12] Chen, J.: The financial risk characteristics and prevention measures. Chinese Business (first

Team # 02 Page 18 of 18

half) (October 15, 2009)

Ⅸ. Appendix